🗞️ Media called out for rhetoric on Trump

GREETINGS!

🔔 In today’s email:

🏆 Trump victory predicted by AtlasIntel poll
📈 Over 30% of people in early voting
🏘️ Newsom announced $827 million in homelessness grants
🗣️ NYC Mayor calls for media to “turn down the rhetoric”

🚨 Key Story:

📶📱 Trump and Harris compete for Joe Rogan audience

-Mike

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Trump victory predicted by AtlasIntel poll

2020’s most accurate polling group, AtlasInel polls, predicts a Trump victory.

• The organization’s most recent survey gives Trump 296 electoral votes and Harris 242.

• In 2020’s US Presidential Election, AtlasInel polls had an average error of just 2.01p.p, a staggering difference from its competitors.

• Part of their success is attributed to their polling method which they do online as opposed to live-caller telephone interviews. 

As far as swing states go, Polymarket foresees Trump winning each one by a wide margin.

• Polymarket foresees Arizona with the most dramatic difference, giving Trump 74% of votes and Harris 26%.

• That said, Polymarket is only four years old and while polls have been criticized for their biases, especially in the 2016 presidential election, some say Polymarket may appeal to a more republican audience.

• Most other polls also put Trump and Harris neck and neck, with Harris having a slight lead in some battleground states.

• What’s undeniable though, is Polymarket’s rapid growth, having gone from $9.5 million in stablecoins to surpassing $1 billion in just this year’s election cycle.

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51 million people have already voted

More than 51 million people have voted so far in 2024’s presidential election.

• For some states, this number reflects an upwards trend. For example, New Jersey set a state record for their early person voter turnout.

• For other states though, there’s been less of a turnout than in 2020.

• As an example, one million ballots have so far been cast in Washington State, but during this point in 2020’s election, 2.2 million Washington residents had voted. 

For republicans, across the board there’s less skepticism about early voting than there was in 2020.

• This could be part of the reason why their 2020 3-1 disadvantage in early mail voting in Pennsylvania is now less than 2-1.

• Then for the democrats, they’re far behind their number of early votes compared to how many were cast in PA in 2020.

• That year during this time in the election cycle, 1.2 million votes had been cast as opposed to the now 850,000.

• Another contributing factor to this could be that this election has started to transition away from the Covid-19 era where mail in voting was especially popular.

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Newsom announces $827 million in homelessness grants

After mayors of California’s 13 largest cities desperately reached out for help with their homelessness crisis, the state promised them a grant, originally no more than 500 million.

• But now Gavin Newsom has announced $827 million in grants for cities with a large homeless population. 

• $380 million of that is going to L.A region counties and $160 million is directly for the city of Los Angeles.

• These funds are both a part of the Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention program’s fifth round of funding.

With 75,312 homeless persons in the L.A region, Newsom acknowledged this is an emotional issue that can’t be solved with naive solutions.

• However, since 2023, there’s been a slight dip in the homeless population, which aligns with HHAP’s prediction that there will be a 10.7% decrease in homelessness and a 17.7% increase in those in shelters because of the grants.

• With similar programming, Skid Row saw a 42% drop in unhoused women and of the 2,000 Skid Row residents placed in interim housing, nearly 1,000 found permanent housing.

• With hundreds of overdose deaths and dozens of violent related deaths having occurred on Skid Row, which is one of the United State’s highest populations of homeless people, this area will likely be a main focus.

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NYC Mayor calls for media to “turn down the rhetoric” on Trump

NYC Mayor Adams has stepped outside democratic party norms once more.

• This time, he told New York media, that the media was in a bubble and out of touch, referring to their reporting on whether or not Trump was a fascist, or comparable to Hitler.

• At a press conference he said, “Everyone needs to turn down the rhetoric cause after election day we still have to be the United States …I refuse to participate in that.”

• “I’m going to fight for New Yorkers like I have for years and whoever can’t understand that, they’re not in the streets when I’m at these town halls talking to people there, they’re not asking me these silly questions.” 

Mayor Adams's remarks follow those of John F. Kelly, Trump's ex-Chief of Staff, who claimed said Trump allegedly praised Hitler several times.

• Kamala Harris also called Trump a fascist at the most recent CNN Town Hall Event.

• Opponents use Trump’s infamous “the enemy within” quote as evidence Trump will succumb to violence against political opponents.

• However, on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Trump has stated that the “enemy from within” are specifically individuals in government who are doing harm to the country through their policies, such as the current border crisis.

KEY STORY

Trump, Harris compete over Joe Rogan appearance

Two years after Joe Rogan said he would not have Donald Trump on his podcast, “The Joe Rogan Experience," Rogan had Trump on his podcast for three hours on Friday. In the past, Rogan has had tension with Trump, but this conversation was more personal and lighthearted. Meanwhile, Harris’s campaign offered Harris to be on his show this past Tuesday, but the Harris campaign wouldn’t comply with Rogan’s interview standards. Harris’s team wanted Rogan to fly to her, but he felt it was best to have the one-on-one in his studio in Austin, Texas. He also brought up that Harris’s team said she would only be available for an hour. Still, Rogan says he still hopes to eventually have her on his show saying, "My sincere wish is to just have a nice conversation and get to know her as a human being." 

Meanwhile, Trump flew to Austin for his Friday interview which caused him to be hours late to a Michigan rally that same day. Some in the crowd braved the cold night as they waited for him (for which Trump apologized for). J.D Vance also is making an appearance in Austin to be on Joe Rogan’s show today. Nothing has officially been said about whether or not Tim Walz has been invited on. However, in the past, Rogan heavily criticized Walz. 

Rogan, who doesn’t identify as conservative and has disagreed with the republican party on several issues, still has a strong conservative reach. He especially maintains an audience with young males–a demographic Harris seems to have a hold of and one that Trump is trying to court. All together, Rogan has 14.5 million followers on Spotify, making it the streaming platform’s top podcast. Additionally, Rogan’s most recent episode with Trump is now his channel’s second most watched video on youtube, with over 39 million views.

HEADLINES
Here’s some small talk ammunition

FROM THE EDITOR

You’re a special kind of person if you reached the end of the road here. :)

-Mike