🗞️ Kamala Harris Down in Polling

GREETINGS!

🔔 In today’s email:

📈 Trump leads Harris at all time high
🧍‍♂️ Largest voter gender gap in recent history
🎦 Both parties decreasingly trust the media

🚨 Key Story:

🗣️ Kamala Harris’ push to appeal to Black men

-Mike

QUICK BITE

Trump leads Harris at an all time high on one poll

Trump has a record lead of 13.5 points over Harris, in a recent Poleymarket poll.

• By 10:30 a.m. Wednesday morning, Polymarket had Trump’s chances of winning the electoral college vote at 57.7% versus Harris’s 41.9% (with $566,923,873 being put on Trump and $383,952 on Harris).

• Harris had a significant lead in just 19 states.

• However, the site predicted she had a 63% chance of taking the popular vote over Trump’s 37%. Still this is a 7% increase for Trump from past Polymarket polling’s. 

Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcome of all kinds of world events. For example, based on users’ bids, Trump has a 77% chance of getting more black voter support in 2024. They also foresee a 78% chance of a Republican majority Senate and a 56% likelihood of a Democratic majority house.

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Largest voter gender gap in recent history

A poll by New York Times/Siena College discovered a 16-point difference between the percentage of men who support Trump (55%) versus the percentage of women who do (39%).

This number is the largest in recent history, establishing a growing trend. Exit polls showed the 2004 and 2008 presidential election saw a gender-gap of only seven points.

It increased in 2012 to 10 points and then 12-points in 2020 (most likely due to a 15% decrease in female votes for Trump from 2016).

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Both parties decreasingly trust the media

The majority of Americans surveyed in a recent Gallup poll, at least somewhat distrust the media.

• Just 31% of Americans say they have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of assurance the media reports news fair and accurately. This is a one percent decrease from last year and an all time low.

• This is an alarming stat when compared to a Gallup poll in the 1970s where 72% of people said they trusted the media and to 51% to 55% in the early 2000s. 

In 2024, 36% of U.S adults expressed they don’t trust the media at all and 33% said they don’t have much trust.

• This trend is shared among Democrats and Republicans. While 54% of Democrats say they have great confidence in the media over 12% of Republicans who do, the Democrats’ trust has decreased by 22% from just a few years ago.

• The trend may likely continue as those 50 and younger are less likely to trust the media by 17% compared to those 65 and older. 

KEY STORY

Kamala Harris’ push to appeal to Black men

Calling it an “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” Harris recently proposed plans to black voters. These promises included forgiving business loans for Black entrepreneurs, financing studies of diseases that disproportionately affect African American men,  easier job access for black men and legalizing recreational marijuana. These efforts correspond with recent polls finding Harris is losing support from black voters, a historically crucial demographic for democratic victories. 

In 2020, 87% of black voters voted for Biden, but in 2024, potential black voters’ support for then presidential candidate Biden, dwindled to 77%. In October,  some polls say only 70% of black men plan to support Harris. Unlike the caucasian demographic, it’s young black males who are most significantly decreasing in their support for the Democratic Party. Compare this to how 95% of black voters supported Obama in 2008 (an all time high) and it’s no wonder why both parties are increasingly competing for this demographic. 

With 19 days until election day, Harris’s campaign team is hosting several events for black men especially in swing states. These will include NFL and NCAA football watch parties with black male celebrities and a series of ads featuring black men from local communities throughout battleground states. Harris will also be on “The Breakfast Club,” where she’s expected to try to reach more black voters. Meanwhile Trump has also been courting black voters and voters of a younger demographic–two groups of voters he’s lacked support from at the polls. 

This all comes off of the tailend Barack Obama’s, blunt statement said in Pittsburg to Harris-Walz campaign volunteers and officials.  “Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that,” the former president said the past Thursday. This statement was met with mixed reactions especially amongst black males.

HEADLINES
Here’s some small talk ammunition

FROM THE EDITOR

You’re a special kind of person if you reached the end of the road here. :)

-Mike