🗞️ Final pollings predicts Trump victory

GREETINGS!

🔔 In today’s email:

🪖 Military service members low on absentee ballots
💧 RFK Jr. promises elimination of fluoride in water

🚨 Key Story:

📈 Several polls predict a Trump victory
⚖️ Daniel Penny trial, day one revelation

-Mike

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Military service members low on absentee ballots

GOP Reps. Brian Mast (FL), Mike Waltz (FL) and Bill Huizenga (MI) wrote to the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, explaining their concern that there haven’t been enough absentee ballots sent to military service members.

• Republicans said they received news from military personnel that officers are asking for ballots but there aren’t enough.

• Additionally, reportedly service members requested the Pentagon give clearer instructions on how deployed service members can vote.

These remarks came after House Democrats called, also on Austin, to ensure all service members could vote following lawsuits from The Republican National Committee.

• These lawsuits alleged that Michigan and North Carolina allowed “overseas citizens who never lived in either state to illegally vote.”

• However, the judge tossed these lawsuits out citing the last minute push of the lawsuits and that 25,000 overseas ballots had already been sent out. 

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RFK Jr. promises elimination of fluoride in water & a ban on Big Pharma

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says if Trump’s elected, together they “will advise all U.S water systems to remove fluoride from public water.”

• This comes after a federal agency found a potential correlation between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in children.

• This is a dissent from the practice of adding fluoride to water which historically has been said to strengthen teeth and prevent cavities.

• However, as of now, there’s a federal order for the US Environmental Protection Agency “to further regulate fluoride in drinking water.”

If Trump’s elected, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will also advise him to ban Big Pharma from advertising on TV starting day one.

• In fact, Kennedy Jr says it will be the first executive order he signs.

• Why the passion? Kennedy Jr. said pharmaceutical companies helped to create the opioid crisis, adding that “we [The United States] take three times the amount of pharmaceutical drugs as Europeans do, or anybody else in the Western World…pharmaceutical drugs are the third biggest killer of Americans, after cancer and heart attacks.”

• “And our health outcomes are worse than any country in the world. We're 79th after Mongolia, Cuba, and Costa Rica in terms of health outcomes.” 

Another major concern of Kennedy Jr’s is how the major networks take in hundreds of millions of dollars from big pharma advertisements. He believes that could influence how the news is reported.

• “The people who are working, telling you the news every night, they know that their paychecks are coming from pharma, and that’s not a good thing,” said Kennedy Jr.

• He pointed out the US is one of only two countries to “allow pharmaceutical companies to advertise directly to consumers on television.”

• To back up his points he shared The Washington Post survey which found pharmaceutical companies spend more resources on marketing than on research.

KEY STORY

Several polls predict a Trump victory

2020’s most accurate presidential poll, AtlasIntel, shows a Trump win in every swing state.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are the closest (a consistent finding of most other polls) whereas the widest margin belongs to Arizona and Nevada.

According to AtlasIntel’s poll, Trump leads the electoral college vote by just two points.

Some are skeptical about the accuracy of polls especially since in 2016, several media outlets gave Hillarly Clinton a 90% chance of winning the Presidential Election.

The New York Times suggests a factor of these misleading polling results could be related to what demographic is most likely to answer surveys. They reported that “‘white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans.’”

Meanwhile, Nate Silver may have given Harris a 75.3% chance of winning the popular vote, but for the vote that counts, the electoral college, Trump comes out on top.

The survey acknowledges it’s a really close race, coming close to a tie, but they still give Trump a 51.5% chance over Harris’s 48.1% chance of winning. Also in this survey, every swing state is neck and neck, with Michigan and Wisconsin leaning towards Harris. 

Throughout the 2024 election cycle, the Rasmussen polls have revealed some unique findings.

For starters, this election especially, some people aren’t a fan of either candidate. 4% of voters are still unsure who they will vote for and 5% are voting for another candidate.

The Rasmussen polls also showed new demographic trends as well.

In 2020, 92% of black voters voted for President Biden, but according to the Rasmussen poll, only 63% are expected to come out for Harris. There’s been a trend of a growing number of conservatives among younger black voters and among Hispanic voters. Right now 49% of Hispanic voters are expected to vote for him.

For one of the voting blocks Harris counts on most: females, she has 49% of their vote where Trump has 46%.

In the younger age bracket, where democrats tend to also fare better, Harris only has a 2% probable advantage of Trump. Additionally, for those crossing over party lines, 14% of registered democrats are predicted to vote for Trump while 12% of republicans are expected to turn out for Harris.

Harris does fair better with moderates with 53% supporting her over the 42% who support Trump with their votes.

To finish off with Polymarket, the poll that has most consistently projected a Trump victory the most, right now is giving Wisconsin and Michigan to Harris. Wisconsin’s margin is slim, with only 2% separating Trump and Harris. However, Trump has a strong lead in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Once again these findings are consistent with other major polls. 

KEY STORY

Daniel Penny trial, day one revelation

If elections aren’t divisive enough, the Daniel Penny case has divided many throughout the nation. Some see Penny’s actions on the subway as heroic, saving himself and others. Others see him as a cold blooded murderer who recklessly killed Jordan Neely in a chokehold. Since the incident more than a year and a half ago, the case has been debated by the public extensively. Now though, the jury has been selected and the first day of trial on Friday has come to pass. The anonymous jury of 12 Manhattanites will decide Penny’s fate weeks from now. Penny has pleaded not guilty, but if convicted he faces up to fifteen years in prison. Potentially helping his cause, the jury is made up of several who take the subway frequently, two even having experienced harassment themselves on the train. 

Probably the most shocking revelation of the trial’s first day was that Neely had a faint pulse after Penny put him in a chokehold and by the time police arrived at the scene. However, the NYPD refused to give mouth-to-mouth CPR because police could tell Neely was dirty and an apparent drug user. Officers worried if they performed CPR, they could get hepatitis, and if Neely awoke he probably would throw-up, giving the officers an additional risk of sickness. Also in the testimony, the first witness NYPD Officer Teodoro Tejada revealed since Neely was evidently not breathing at the scene, medics attempted to save Neely with an injection of Narvan, as well as with chest compressions and by a defibrillator machine. Furthermore, he testified they didn’t have the proper equipment upon arrival. 

In the released body cam footage showing what happened upon police arrival, Penny was transparent to police about what happened. The footage also showed that after police came, it took Northwell Health fifteen minutes to arrive and after 45 minutes, Neely was still on the subway (at that point the released body cam footage ended). 

Day one additionally included a 40 minute opening statement from prosecutor Manhattan Assistant District Attorney, Dafna Yoran. Yoran argued that while it only took “30 seconds to travel from the Second Avenue stop to Broadway Lafayette” before passengers fled the train, Penny kept Neely in a chokehold for five minutes and 53 seconds. In his 20 minute defense, Penny’s lawyer Thomas Kenniff rebutted, “This struggle did last five to six minutes. But Danny was not, and could not, have been squeezing his neck. We know that because if he was, Neely would have passed out in the first minute.” 

The trial is expected to last six weeks. According to Kenniff, those who were with Penny and Neely that day on the subway will testify next week.

FROM THE EDITOR

You’re a special kind of person if you reached the end of the road here. :)

-Mike