🗞️ Election polls

GREETINGS!

🔔 In today’s email:

🚔 Equal Secret Service protection voted in the House
👀 Diddy place on suicide watch post bail denial

🚨 Key Story:

📈 Election polls show Kamala Harris gaining ground

-Mike

QUICK BITE

House passes bill to mandate equal USSS protections

The House of Representatives has passed a bipartisan bill to enhance U.S. Secret Service (USSS) protections for major presidential and vice-presidential candidates following two foiled assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump.

• The legislation passed with an overwhelming 405 to 0 vote, showcasing rare bipartisan unity in Congress.

• Introduced by Reps. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) and Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), the bill was prompted by a July 13 shooting at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where a gunman opened fire, killing one attendee and injuring Trump and two others.

• Additionally, a separate incident occurred weeks later when a man was arrested near Trump's West Palm Beach golf course with an SKS rifle.

If the bill passes the Senate and is signed into law by President Biden, it would mandate a comprehensive review of USSS protective standards and impose uniform security measures for presidents, vice presidents, and major White House candidates.

• During the debate, Rep. Mike Lawler emphasized, "The idea that our election could be decided by an assassin's bullet should shake the conscience of our nation."

• Progressive Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) supported the bill but criticized it for not addressing broader gun violence issues, arguing that stronger firearm laws are needed to protect the general public.

• House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) pushed back against Nadler’s comments, accusing Democrats of unfairly blaming Republicans for the assassination attempts.

The bill's definition of "major" candidates remains unclear. Following the first attempt on Trump's life, President Biden had already extended heightened USSS protection to the former president, who was still running against him at the time.

QUICK BITE

Diddy placed on suicide watch amid federal sex trafficking charges 

Sean "Diddy" Combs, the well-known music mogul, has been placed on a "procedural" suicide watch as he awaits trial on three felony counts, including racketeering, sex trafficking, and transportation to engage in prostitution.

• Combs has been in federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in New York City since Monday night, and his close monitoring by guards is standard procedure for high-profile clients, according to a source familiar with the situation.

• The source added that Combs "remains strong and focused on his defense."

On Wednesday, a judge denied Combs' request for bail, though his defense team is exploring further legal actions to secure his release before trial.

• The 54-year-old is accused of using his wealth and influence to orchestrate degrading and abusive sex acts, known as "freak offs," over a period spanning more than a decade, beginning as early as 2008.

• Prosecutors allege that Combs directed and recorded these acts, threatening and coercing women and others to participate.

• Federal agents reportedly seized over 1,000 bottles of baby oil and other lubricants from Combs' properties, which were allegedly used during these acts.

KEY STORY

Post-debate polls show harris gaining ground, but race remains tight with trump in key swing states 

What election polls are saying now  

Following the Presidential candidate debate on Sept. 10, Harris expanded her lead in several polls. The debate could’ve played a large part in this, as one polling showed 53% of voters believed Harris won compared to 24% who said Trump did (the rest didn’t answer).

On Sept. 11, Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction betting market, still had Harris and Trump tied in the presidential race projection. However, more recently, Polymarket gave Harris a 52% shot, whereas Trump’s chance of victory decreased to 46%. Other betting polls and election surveys gave Harris an even stronger lead. 

That said, Forbes also reported that Harris’s favorable debate performance was not enough to significantly change her chances of winning and unlike other polls, as of Sept. 19, the New York Times and Siena have Haris and Trump tied at 47%. 

Boldest of all, The Leading Report gave Trump a 59.6% of winning over Harris’s 34% chance. 

Undecided voters 

With 45 days left until election day, a lot’s still up in the air. Harris and Trump will need to fight for the roughly remaining 8%-6% of undecided voters. 

Following Biden’s decision to drop out of the race, a poll reported 15% of US adults were unsure if they viewed Harris favorably– a much higher percentage than the 8% who were unsure of Trump. Some predictors said because of this, Harris has a larger crowd to win over while Trump’s hit a ceiling with independent and undecided voters. 

Swing States 

The Leading Report’s survey predicts Trump will take three of the six major swing states. Forbes came to a similar conclusion from the different surveys they examined. Neither Trump nor Harris have a major lead in any of the swing states…Compare that to the 2020 election where Biden won all six major swing states.  

How accurate are polls even? 

With the endlessly changing polls, how solid of a measure can they be? 

By examining hundreds of elections dating back to 1998, FiveThirtyEight senior elections analyst Nathanial Rakich found polls accurately forecasted the winner 78% of the time. 

Interestingly enough, since 1984, the S&P 500’s performance from August to October has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential election–that is according to Fortune magazine. When the market is doing well, the incumbent party has won every time. Which is perhaps a major hint as to what issues the candidates should be focusing on during these final laps. 

HEADLINES
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FROM THE EDITOR

You’re a special kind of person if you reached the end of the road here. :)

-Mike